The Market in a Minute

Presented By Alan Favre, CFP

Authoreed By Patrick Adams, CFA
September 28, 2009

The S&P 500 was down over 2% last week. The question is, is this the start of something bigger or is the market going to follow the pattern it has for the past several months? A small correction like we just experienced, and then a push higher? Generally around quarter end markets perform well. So I would not read much into the strength that may come today thru Wednesday. There is a lot of news coming later this week that could move the markets.

Market in a Minute, September 21, 2009

                              

Presented by Alan Favre, CFP

Authored by Partick Adams, CFA

Our position on the market is, sentiment is very much tilted to too many bulls, valuation is not excessive but is full, the market is overbought, and GDP growth will slow after the 3rd quarter. We could avoid a correction but the odds are against it.

Market in a Minute; September 14, 2009

Presented by Alan Favre, CFP

Authored by Partick Adams, CFA

Index Price Last Week YTD The Investor Intelligence Sentiment Index is now above 50% bulls and below 20% bears. This index is a good intermediate-term indicator for the market. When there are too many bulls, it is time to sell, and when there too many bears it is time to buy. The indicator is clearly at a sell reading. Our valuation work indicates the market is fully valued as well. The market is up over 54% from the low, there has only been one other period in time when we had a better six month advance, and that was in 1933. Could the market still go higher…sure, but it really cannot go up much more, in a reasonable time period, without a major shift in fundamentals. The near term fundamentals all look fine, but when you go out a quarter or two you have greater uncertainty.